Perry H B, Detmer D E, Buchanan-Davidson D J
Surgery. 1984 Feb;95(2):243-8.
The Graduate Medical Education National Advisory Committee's 1980 report on physician manpower estimated that 23,500 general surgeons would be required in 1990 and that there would be a surplus of 11,800 trained general surgeons by then. Using the GMENAC estimates of need and our analysis of supply, we project a surplus of only about half that number. To balance the supply of general surgeons to anticipated needs by the year 2000, it is estimated that the number of physicians beginning their residency training in general surgery between 1984 and 1995 should be reduced by 20% in relation to the number of first-year general surgery residents in 1982-1983.
毕业后医学教育全国咨询委员会1980年关于医师人力的报告估计，1990年将需要23,500名普通外科医生，到那时将有11,800名经过培训的普通外科医生过剩。根据毕业后医学教育全国咨询委员会对需求的估计以及我们对供应情况的分析，我们预计过剩人数仅为该数字的一半左右。为了使普通外科医生的供应与到2000年的预期需求相平衡，据估计，1984年至1995年开始接受普通外科住院医师培训的医生人数相对于1982 - 1983年普通外科一年级住院医师人数应减少20%。
