Policy proposal for correcting the imbalance in general surgical manpower.

The Graduate Medical Education National Advisory Committee's 1980 report on physician manpower estimated that 23,500 general surgeons would be required in 1990 and that there would be a surplus of 11,800 trained general surgeons by then. Using the GMENAC estimates of need and our analysis of supply, we project a surplus of only about half that number. To balance the supply of general surgeons to anticipated needs by the year 2000, it is estimated that the number of physicians beginning their residency training in general surgery between 1984 and 1995 should be reduced by 20% in relation to the number of first-year general surgery residents in 1982-1983.