Williams D C
Surgery. 1984 Mar;95(3):347-52.
Concern for a possible oversupply of physicians caused the Secretary of Health and Human Services to create the Graduate Medical Education National Advisory Committee (GMENAC) to analyze the nation's supply and requirements for physicians. Issued in 1980, the GMENAC Report projected an aggregate surplus of 70,000 physicians in 1990. Surgeons in particular were projected to exceed requirements by 40%. I evaluated the GMENAC parameters using the quantitative methodology initially developed for the 1970 Study on Surgical Services for the United States. This assessment of the GMENAC projections indicated increased population-based use of surgical intervention and projected wide interspecialty variation in average surgeon productivity with an even larger excess of surgeons than that projected for 1990 by GMENAC.
由于担心医生可能供应过剩，卫生与公众服务部部长成立了研究生医学教育全国咨询委员会（GMENAC），以分析美国医生的供应情况和需求。GMENAC报告于1980年发布，预计到1990年医生总数将过剩70000人。特别是外科医生预计将超出需求40%。我使用最初为1970年美国外科服务研究开发的定量方法评估了GMENAC的参数。对GMENAC预测的评估表明，基于人群的外科手术干预使用增加，预计外科医生的平均生产力在各专业之间存在很大差异，外科医生过剩的数量甚至比GMENAC预测的1990年还要多。
