The changing pattern of primary pediatric care: update for one community.

The changing pattern of pediatric practice in the Rochester, New York, community between the late 1960s and the late 1970s is described, and some extrapolations for the next decade are discussed. The child population shrunk from 243,000 in 1970 to 192,000 in 1980 and is expected to decrease further to 160,000 in 1990, possibly stabilizing at 140,000 by 2000. The number of pediatric beds as well as occupancy rates declined, but the number of full-time equivalent practicing pediatricians increased slightly. One third of them are now practicing out of neighborhood health centers or health maintenance organizations. Problems of manpower shortage and inadequate access to care for the inner city residents have long since disappeared. Utilization rates by race and socioeconomic area are similar once the children enter the care system. For "well child" care, however, there may still be lower utilization for blacks, especially for older children. The high "market penetration" for child health services by pediatricians, and the high proportion of well child visits (40%) among all visits, may be atypical for the nation as a whole, but is probably indicative of what pediatric care elsewhere will be in the future. Fewer children, and less acute care per child, will allow pediatricians to focus increasingly on preventive, developmental, and psychosocial needs.