Lock W
MMW Munch Med Wochenschr. 1981 Oct 2;123(40):1491-7.
Cancer mortality in Hamburg, calculated per 10,000 living inhabitants of each age group of men and women for the years 1873 to 1978 proved to be essentially constant after eliminating sources of statistical error. Calculation or organ involvement by the same method for 1933 to 1978 showed that the increase in mortality for one type of location is compensated by a decrease elsewhere, so that altogether the constancy remains. This behavior can be explained if it be assumed. This behavior can be explained if it be assumed that a certain constant percentage of the population is prone to cancer and - possibly due to the action of exogenous noxae - becomes ill when the necessary age is reached. The nature of a determining factor which is most probably present is not known. Comparison with international figure shows that the results of the Hamburg Study can be considered a model case.
1873年至1978年期间，对汉堡男性和女性各年龄组每10000名在世居民计算的癌症死亡率，在消除统计误差来源后，基本保持恒定。1933年至1978年采用相同方法计算的器官受累情况表明，一种部位的死亡率增加被其他部位的降低所抵消，因此总体上保持恒定。如果假设一定比例的人口易患癌症，并且——可能由于外源性有害物质的作用——在达到必要年龄时患病，那么这种行为是可以解释的。最可能存在的决定因素的性质尚不清楚。与国际数据的比较表明，汉堡研究的结果可被视为一个典型案例。
