Forecasting the development of primary hepatocellular carcinoma by the use of risk factors: studies in West Africa.

An association between hepatitis B virus (HBV) and primary hepatocellular carcinoma (PHC) has been found in several studies in Africa, Asia, and elsewhere. In this paper we considered the interrelations between several events related to HBV infection, which include the presence of: 1) hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg), 2) antibody to hepatitis B core antigen (anti-HBc), 3) antibody to the surface antigen (anti-HBs), 4) chronic liver disease, 5) elevated alpha-fetoprotein, and 6) PHC. With the use of preliminary epidemiologic data, risk factors related to these events were calculated. We suggested that the interactions between these events and HBV infection in parents be used to estimate the risk of PHC for an individual in this environment.