Pokorny A D
Arch Gen Psychiatry. 1983 Mar;40(3):249-57. doi: 10.1001/archpsyc.1983.01790030019002.
A prospective research study attempted to identify persons who would subsequently commit or attempt suicide. The sample consisted of 4,800 patients who were consecutively admitted to the inpatient psychiatric service of a Veterans Administration hospital. They were examined and rated on a wide range of instruments and measures, including most of those previously reported as predictive of suicide. Many items were found to have positive and substantial correlations with subsequent suicides and/or suicide attempts. However, all attempts to identify specific subjects were unsuccessful, including use of individual items, factor scores, and a series of discriminant functions. Each trial missed many cases and identified far too many false positive cases to be workable. Identification of particular persons who will commit suicide is not currently feasible, because of the low sensitivity and specificity of available identification procedures and the low base rate of this behavior.
一项前瞻性研究试图识别那些随后会实施自杀或自杀未遂的人。样本包括4800名连续入住一家退伍军人管理局医院住院精神科的患者。他们接受了多种工具和测量的检查和评分，包括大多数先前报告的可预测自杀的工具和测量。发现许多项目与随后的自杀和/或自杀未遂存在显著正相关。然而，所有识别特定个体的尝试均未成功，包括使用单个项目、因子得分和一系列判别函数。每次试验都遗漏了许多病例，且识别出了太多假阳性病例，无法实际应用。由于现有识别程序的敏感性和特异性较低以及这种行为的低基础发生率，目前识别特定的自杀者是不可行的。
