Heise E R, Keever C, McMahan M R
Am J Forensic Med Pathol. 1983 Mar;4(1):15-23. doi: 10.1097/00000433-198303000-00003.
Five hundred and thirty-seven cases of disputed paternity in North Carolina were tested for five erythrocyte polymorphisms, HLA antigens, or both. The data were analyzed to evaluate the ability of the tests to exclude the alleged father or to include the alleged father as the biological father. Incompatibility between the phenotypes of the alleged father, and those of the mother and child, were found in 40.6% of black males and 30.3% of white males (P less than 0.005). The rates of exclusion appeared to vary between countries in which the cases originated, although the significance of the differences could not be determined because of the small sample size. Using a Bayesian approach and 0.5 as the prior probability of paternity, we calculated the posterior probability of paternity for HLA and five erythrocyte systems combined as well as for HLA and erythrocyte systems separately. The probability of paternity values based on the combined HLA and RBC tests exceeded 95% in 299 of the 345 nonexcluded cases as compared to only 218 cases based on HLA tests alone and 36 cases based on erythrocyte tests alone. We conclude that in approximately 10% of paternity cases in the population served by this laboratory, the information obtained is inconclusive. To resolve these cases, additional polymorphisms and/or a panel of genetic tests systems which can provide greater than 95% probability of exclusion is required.
对北卡罗来纳州的537例亲权纠纷案例进行了5种红细胞多态性、HLA抗原或两者的检测。对数据进行分析，以评估这些检测排除被指控父亲或认定被指控父亲为生物学父亲的能力。在40.6%的黑人男性和30.3%的白人男性中，发现被指控父亲与母亲和孩子的表型不相容（P小于0.005）。排除率似乎因案例来源的国家不同而有所差异，不过由于样本量小，无法确定这些差异的显著性。采用贝叶斯方法，并将亲权的先验概率设为0.5，我们分别计算了HLA与5种红细胞系统联合以及HLA和红细胞系统单独的亲权后验概率。在345例未被排除的案例中，基于HLA和红细胞检测联合的亲权概率值在299例中超过了95%，相比之下，仅基于HLA检测的有218例，仅基于红细胞检测的有36例。我们得出结论，在该实验室服务的人群中，约10%的亲权案例所获得的信息尚无定论。要解决这些案例，需要额外的多态性和/或一组能提供超过95%排除概率的基因检测系统。
