Rowland R E, Stehney A F, Lucas H F
Health Phys. 1983;44 Suppl 1:15-31. doi: 10.1097/00004032-198306001-00001.
The incidence of bone sarcomas among 3055 female radium-dial workers who entered the dial industry before 1950 was used to determine dose-response relationships for the induction of bone sarcomas by radium. Two subpopulations were analyzed: all measured cases who survived at least 5 yr after the start of employment and all cases who survived at least 2 yr after first measurement. The first constituted a group based on year of entry; it contained 1468 women who experienced 42 bone sarcomas; the expected number was 0.4. The second comprised a group based on first measurement; it contained 1257 women who experienced 13 bone sarcomas; the expected number was 0.2. The dose-response function, I = (C + alpha D + beta D2)e-gammaD, and simplifications of this general form, were fit to each data set. Incidence (I) was in units of bone sarcomas per person-yr; (D) was the quantity (muCi) of radium that entered the blood. Two functions, I = (C + alpha D + beta D2)e-gammaD and I = (C + beta D2)e-gammaD, fit the data for year of entry (p greater than or equal to 0.05); both these functions and I = (C + alpha D) fit the data for first measurement. The function I = (C + beta D2)e-gammaD was used to predict the number of bone sarcomas in all other pre-1950 radium cases (medical, laboratory and other exposures); fewer were actually observed than the fit of this function to the female dial workers predicted.
1950年以前进入表盘制造业的3055名从事镭表盘工作的女性中骨肉瘤的发病率，被用于确定镭诱发骨肉瘤的剂量反应关系。分析了两个亚人群：所有在开始工作后至少存活5年的已测量病例，以及所有在首次测量后至少存活2年的病例。第一个亚人群基于入职年份组成；它包含1468名女性，其中有42例骨肉瘤；预期数量为0.4。第二个亚人群基于首次测量组成；它包含1257名女性，其中有13例骨肉瘤；预期数量为0.2。剂量反应函数I = (C + αD + βD²)e^(-γD) 以及此一般形式的简化形式，被拟合到每个数据集。发病率（I）的单位是每人年的骨肉瘤病例数；（D）是进入血液的镭的量（微居里）。两个函数，I = (C + αD + βD²)e^(-γD) 和I = (C + βD²)e^(-γD) ，拟合了入职年份的数据（p≥0.05）；这两个函数以及I = (C + αD) 都拟合了首次测量的数据。函数I = (C + βD²)e^(-γD) 被用于预测1950年以前所有其他镭暴露病例（医疗、实验室和其他暴露）中的骨肉瘤病例数；实际观察到的病例数比该函数对女性表盘工人数据的拟合预测值要少。
