Polednak A P
J Natl Cancer Inst. 1978 Jan;60(1):77-82. doi: 10.1093/jnci/60.1.77.
Bone cancer in 1,250 women exposed to radium while working in the luminous watch-dial industry between 1913 and 1929 were analyzed for times of appearance ("latency periods") and incidence rates over time after first exposure. The lowest radium intake dose associated with bone cancer, among 751 women whose intake doses had been determined, was 202.5 muCi. Mean and median bone cancer latency periods tended to decline, but average survival among women without bone cancer also decreased with increasing intake level. Bone cancer incidence rates over time were compared in 2 intake-dose groups (200--749 and greater than or equal to 759 muCi) by means of an actuarial method that takes competing risks into account. Incidence rates were consistently higher in the higher intake-dose group versus the lower dose group at each 5-year period after first exposure. The variability in the odds ratios across the time periods was not statistically significant, and the actuarial method provided little evidence for an effect of intake dose on the pattern of incidence rate over time. With the use of similar methods, no significant variability was evident in the relative odds of bone cancer over time after exposure between one group of women first exposed to radium at less than 18 years of age and another group exposed when 18 or more years old.
对1913年至1929年间在夜光表盘行业工作时接触镭的1250名女性的骨癌情况进行了分析,研究首次接触后骨癌出现时间(“潜伏期”)和发病率随时间的变化。在751名已确定摄入量的女性中,与骨癌相关的最低镭摄入量为202.5微居里。骨癌的平均和中位潜伏期呈下降趋势,但无骨癌女性的平均生存期也随着摄入量的增加而缩短。采用考虑竞争风险的精算方法,比较了2个摄入量组(200 - 749微居里和大于或等于759微居里)随时间的骨癌发病率。首次接触后的每个5年时间段,高摄入量组的发病率始终高于低摄入量组。各时间段比值比的变异性无统计学意义,精算方法几乎没有提供证据表明摄入量对发病率随时间变化的模式有影响。使用类似方法,首次接触镭时年龄小于18岁的一组女性与18岁及以上接触的另一组女性相比,接触后随时间骨癌相对比值无明显显著变异性。