Hartunian N S, Smart C N, Willemain T R, Zador P L
J Health Polit Policy Law. 1983 Spring;8(1):76-98. doi: 10.1215/03616878-8-1-76.
Between 1976 and 1980, 28 state legislatures in the United States repealed or weakened their motorcycle helmet-use laws. This paper estimates the number of excess deaths attributable to this deregulatory activity, and the associated economic costs to society. Because of data limitations, no attempt was made to estimate the excess nonfatal injuries and associated costs. We applied a variant of log-linear contingency-table analysis to the monthly counts of motorcycle fatalities in the 48 contiguous states over the period 1975 through 1980. This analysis produced estimates of the total number of deaths, in each of 36 age-sex groups, that could be attributed to changes in the helmet laws. We then estimated the direct and indirect economic costs associated with fatalities in each age-sex group. Our findings indicate that 516 excess deaths occurred in 1980 in the 28 states that weakened or repealed their helmet laws. This represented 24 percent of the total motorcycle fatalities occurring in those states. Women and younger cyclists of both sexes comprised a disproportionate share of excess deaths. The economic costs to society that are associated with the excess fatalities resulting from the repeals of helmet laws total at least $180 million.
1976年至1980年间，美国28个州的立法机构废除或削弱了其摩托车头盔使用法律。本文估计了因这种放松管制行为导致的额外死亡人数以及给社会带来的相关经济成本。由于数据限制，未尝试估计额外的非致命伤害及相关成本。我们对1975年至1980年期间美国48个相邻州的摩托车死亡月度计数应用了对数线性列联表分析的一个变体。该分析得出了36个年龄性别组中每个组可归因于头盔法律变化的死亡总数估计值。然后我们估计了每个年龄性别组中与死亡相关的直接和间接经济成本。我们的研究结果表明，1980年在28个削弱或废除头盔法律的州中发生了516例额外死亡。这占这些州摩托车死亡总数的24%。女性以及男女青年骑行者在额外死亡中所占比例过高。废除头盔法律导致的额外死亡给社会带来的经济成本总计至少1.8亿美元。
