Ford W E, Luckey J W
Int J Addict. 1983 Apr;18(3):319-31. doi: 10.3109/10826088309039351.
In response to an increasing emphasis on health services planning, a technique for projecting in-residence and outpatient alcoholism treatment and rehabilitation needs has been developed. This technique relies on services data from 34 comprehensive alcoholism treatment programs, funded by the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism. For in-residence services, the methodology involves an analysis of the use of available in-residence services such that it is possible to determine how many beds of a given service type are needed to serve those admitted to the treatment system. Because all who come in contact with the system do not need or receive services, it is possible to calculate how many beds of a given service type are needed to serve each person coming in contact with the system. This is called the "beds per contact." The product of the beds per contact times the number in the identified target population is the number of beds of a given type needed to serve the target population. A similar methodology is used to project outpatient service needs. The assumptions underlying this technique, and its advantages and disadvantages, are discussed.
为应对对卫生服务规划日益增长的重视，已开发出一种预测住院和门诊酒精中毒治疗及康复需求的技术。该技术依赖于由国家酒精滥用与酒精中毒研究所资助的34个综合酒精中毒治疗项目的服务数据。对于住院服务，该方法涉及对现有住院服务使用情况的分析，从而能够确定需要多少特定服务类型的床位来为进入治疗系统的患者提供服务。由于并非所有接触该系统的人都需要或接受服务，因此可以计算出为每个接触该系统的人提供服务需要多少特定服务类型的床位。这被称为“每次接触所需床位”。每次接触所需床位数乘以已确定目标人群的数量，就是为目标人群提供服务所需特定类型床位的数量。类似的方法用于预测门诊服务需求。本文讨论了该技术所依据的假设及其优缺点。
