Sonnenberg A
Dtsch Med Wochenschr. 1978 Sep 15;103(37):1443-7. doi: 10.1055/s-0028-1129279.
New (a posteriori) probablities of medical diagnosis can be calculated by the Bayesian formula from a priori probabilities of the diagnosis or diagnoses under consideration and from the probabilities of a given test result occurring with each disease. Using sequential iteration, the Bayesian formula is applicable to the calculation of a posteriori probabilities after multiple tests have been performed. When this iterative process has been programmed for a pocket calculator it can easily be used in clinical practice. As a consequence, medical knowledge can be applied more rationally. Many inconsistent data can be more easily interpreted as a result. Furthermore, results of diagnostic tests can be used more extensively and normal test results given their full weight.
新的（后验）医学诊断概率可以通过贝叶斯公式，根据所考虑的一个或多个诊断的先验概率以及每种疾病出现给定检测结果的概率来计算。通过顺序迭代，贝叶斯公式适用于在进行多次检测后计算后验概率。当为袖珍计算器编写了这个迭代过程的程序后，它就可以很容易地在临床实践中使用。因此，医学知识可以得到更合理的应用。结果，许多不一致的数据可以更容易地得到解释。此外，诊断检测结果可以得到更广泛的应用，正常检测结果也能得到充分重视。
