Manton K G, Stallard E
J Natl Cancer Inst. 1980 Jan;64(1):9-16.
A mathematical model of the age distribution of breast cancer mortality was developed on the basis of the two-disease theory of breast cancer incidence. The model included representations of the time from tumor initiation to death, the competing risk effects of other disease, and differential susceptibility to each of the disease components. This model successfully predicted the single year of age frequency of breast canceomponents of this model was consistent with several epidemiologic findings. Most significantly, the age distribution of breast cancer deaths from premenopausal disease was consistent with incidence patterns in non-Western countries, where the incidence of the postmenopausal disease component was hypothesized to be lower because of nutritional differences.
基于乳腺癌发病的双疾病理论，建立了乳腺癌死亡率年龄分布的数学模型。该模型包括从肿瘤发生到死亡的时间表示、其他疾病的竞争风险效应以及对每种疾病成分的不同易感性。该模型成功预测了乳腺癌的单岁年龄频率。该模型的组成部分与多项流行病学研究结果一致。最显著的是，绝经前疾病导致的乳腺癌死亡年龄分布与非西方国家的发病模式一致，在这些国家，由于营养差异，绝经后疾病成分的发病率被认为较低。
