Spencer A J
Aust Dent J. 1982 Aug;27(4):248-53. doi: 10.1111/j.1834-7819.1982.tb04106.x.
The projected supply of dentists in Australia up to 1991 was analysed using a transitional matrix model. The analysis illustrated the importance of selection of baseline data on the stock of dentists and the sensitivity of the projections of supply to assumptions on recruitment of Australian graduates and to migration of foreign dentists into Australia. The analysis also provided data on the changing age distribution of Australian dentists and the rates of wastage from the dental manpower stock. Directions for further development of a transitional matrix model for the study of dental manpower are discussed.
利用过渡矩阵模型分析了截至1991年澳大利亚牙医的预计供给情况。该分析说明了选择牙医存量基线数据的重要性，以及供给预测对澳大利亚毕业生招募假设和外国牙医移民到澳大利亚的敏感性。该分析还提供了有关澳大利亚牙医年龄分布变化以及牙科人力存量损耗率的数据。讨论了用于研究牙科人力的过渡矩阵模型进一步发展的方向。
