Liang M H, Meenan R F, Cathcart E S, Schur P H
Arthritis Rheum. 1980 Feb;23(2):153-7. doi: 10.1002/art.1780230204.
A survey design which uses two tests in series greatly increases the efficiency of screening. We conducted a study to ascertain the sensitivity, specificity, and predictive value of a screening questionnaire for systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients. A series design in which this questionnaire is used, followed by an antinuclear antibody test, increased the predictive value of a positive screening result by 5 to 10-fold, depending on estimates of disease prevalence. An empirical study of the series design identified two new cases of SLE and indicated that the use of a questionnaire based on accepted criteria is theoretically sound and practical. This approach should prove useful for population surveys of SLE to avoid the sampling and detection biases of previous epidemiologic studies.
一种采用串联两项检测的调查设计极大地提高了筛查效率。我们开展了一项研究，以确定针对系统性红斑狼疮（SLE）患者的筛查问卷的敏感性、特异性和预测价值。采用该问卷随后进行抗核抗体检测的串联设计，根据疾病患病率估计，使阳性筛查结果的预测价值提高了5至10倍。对该串联设计的实证研究发现了两例新的SLE病例，并表明使用基于公认标准的问卷在理论上是合理且实用的。这种方法应证明对SLE的人群调查有用，可避免以往流行病学研究中的抽样和检测偏差。
