Mastrandrea V, La Rosa F, Cresci A, Pannelli F
Am J Epidemiol. 1981 Aug;114(2):218-28. doi: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a113185.
In this study of mortality from cancer of the digestive system in Italy, 1950-1975, both cross-sectional rates and cohort analysis were used. The study found that in both sexes age-standardized rates for cancer of the colon, rectum, liver and biliary tract, and pancreas are increasing whereas the rates for cancer of the stomach are decreasing. Rates for esophagus cancer have remained fairly constant. Cohort analysis showed different trends for selected sites. As to cancer of the stomach, for both sexes, cohorts born up until about 1881 have constant or increasing rates; cohorts born after 1881 have declining rates. For cancer of the esophagus in males the rates reach a peak in the 1896 birth-cohort; cohorts born prior to 1896 show an increase in rates and cohorts born later show a decline. For cancer of the colon, liver and biliary tract, and pancreas, the rates rise constantly for all ages and all cohorts in both sexes. The rates for cancer of the rectum rise after age 75 whereas below that age the rates tend to level off and decline.
在这项对1950年至1975年意大利消化系统癌症死亡率的研究中，采用了横断面发病率和队列分析方法。研究发现，结肠、直肠、肝脏、胆道和胰腺癌的年龄标准化发病率在男女中均呈上升趋势，而胃癌发病率则在下降。食管癌发病率保持相当稳定。队列分析显示，特定部位呈现不同趋势。对于胃癌，男女中，大约1881年以前出生的队列发病率保持不变或上升；1881年以后出生的队列发病率下降。男性食管癌发病率在1896年出生队列达到峰值；1896年以前出生的队列发病率上升，之后出生的队列发病率下降。对于结肠、肝脏、胆道和胰腺癌，男女各年龄段和所有队列的发病率持续上升。直肠癌症发病率在75岁以后上升，而在该年龄以下则趋于平稳并下降。
