Hakama M
World Health Stat Q. 1980;33(4):228-40.
The prediction of the effects of known or postulated intervention is an important administrative (and sometimes scientific) problem, which can be successfully handled by the presently available methodological means. The long-term prediction of cancer risk is a challenging problem without a general solution. Direct extrapolation of past trends of cancer incidence or mortality may lead to grossly erroneous results. The long latent period from the beginning of exposure to the diagnosis of cancer can be utilized in making predictions. The risk factors used as auxiliary variables have two prerequisites: (1) they should be preponderant enough and (2) they should not be subject to unpredictable intervention during the period of prediction. Some primary sites can be thought to meet these general conditions, but it is unlikely that overall cancer risk or risk of cancer at all specific primary sites could be predicted in this way.
预测已知或假定干预措施的效果是一个重要的管理（有时也是科学）问题，目前可用的方法手段能够成功处理这一问题。癌症风险的长期预测是一个具有挑战性的问题，尚无通用解决方案。直接外推癌症发病率或死亡率的过去趋势可能会导致严重错误的结果。从接触开始到癌症诊断的漫长潜伏期可用于进行预测。用作辅助变量的风险因素有两个前提条件：（1）它们应足够占主导地位；（2）在预测期内它们不应受到不可预测的干预。一些主要部位可被认为符合这些一般条件，但通过这种方式预测总体癌症风险或所有特定主要部位的癌症风险不太可能实现。
