[Expected costs in the conservative and surgical treatment of uncomplicated cholecystolithiasis].

Three therapeutic strategies are possible in a patient with asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic cholesterol gallstones: Cholecystectomy, medical gallstone dissolution, and expectant attitude. The course of cholelithiasis under these three strategies was evaluated by three decision trees. The incidences of possible complications were taken from the literature. For every complication the costs of drugs, absenteeism, treatment as outpatient and inpatient were listed. The costs multiplied by the likelihood of the complication represent the expected costs of the complication under consideration. The sum of the costs due to the initial treatment and the expected costs of all possible complications corresponds with the expected average costs of a therapeutic strategy. It is 21 000,- DM with medical gallstone dissolution, 25 000,- DM with immediate cholecystectomy, and 27 000,- DM with expectant attitude, respectively. Gallstone dissolution becomes more expensive than cholecystectomy only when its efficacy drops below 40%. The data show that the costs are less important for the choice of the therapy in cholelithiasis. The advantage of the decision tree lies in the fact that it describes the history and the costs of a disease by figures. Thereby, disagreement on the effects of a therapy on the course of the disease can be analysed and discussed more distinctly.