Harrell F E, Califf R M, Pryor D B, Lee K L, Rosati R A
JAMA. 1982 May 14;247(18):2543-6.
A method is presented for evaluating the amount of information a medical test provides about individual patients. Emphasis is placed on the role of a test in the evaluation of patients with a chronic disease. In this context, the yield of a test is best interpreted by analyzing the prognostic information it furnishes. Information from the history, physical examination, and routine procedures should be used in assessing the yield of a new test. As an example, the method is applied to the use of the treadmill exercise test in evaluating the prognosis of patients with suspected coronary artery disease. The treadmill test is shown to provide surprisingly little prognostic information beyond that obtained from basic clinical measurements.
本文提出了一种评估医学检查为个体患者提供信息量的方法。重点在于该检查在慢性病患者评估中的作用。在此背景下，通过分析检查所提供的预后信息，能最好地解读检查的收益。在评估一项新检查的收益时，应结合病史、体格检查及常规检查所提供的信息。例如，该方法应用于平板运动试验对疑似冠心病患者预后的评估。结果显示，平板试验所提供的预后信息，相较于基本临床测量所获信息，出奇地少。
