Clément J, Van de Woestijne K P
Am Rev Respir Dis. 1982 May;125(5):553-8. doi: 10.1164/arrd.1982.125.5.553.
In a prospective study of 2,406 members of the Belgian Air Force, followed for 3 to 15 yr, 325 demonstrated a yearly decline in FEV1 and/or in vital capacity (VC) that was significantly faster than that expected in healthy nonsmokers. Such rapid declines were met more frequently in heavy smokers and in subjects with a reduced FEV1 or VC. There was no clear-cut association between rapid declines and a history of respiratory diseases. It may be predicted, if the rates of declines do not vary with aging, that about 0.5% of nonsmokers and 4% of heavy smokers in the investigated population will reach disabling airway obstruction (FEV1 of 1.2 L or less) at 65 yr of age. At least 6 to 8 yr of follow-up are required to appreciate with precision the rates of declines in FEV1 or in VC.
在一项对2406名比利时空军成员进行的前瞻性研究中，随访3至15年，325人表现出第一秒用力呼气容积（FEV1）和/或肺活量（VC）逐年下降，其下降速度明显快于健康非吸烟者的预期。重度吸烟者以及FEV1或VC降低的受试者中，这种快速下降更为常见。快速下降与呼吸系统疾病史之间没有明确的关联。如果下降速率不随年龄变化，可以预测，在被调查人群中，约0.5%的非吸烟者和4%的重度吸烟者在65岁时将出现致残性气道阻塞（FEV1为1.2升或更低）。至少需要6至8年的随访才能准确评估FEV1或VC的下降速率。
