Glezen W P, Payne A A, Snyder D N, Downs T D
J Infect Dis. 1982 Sep;146(3):313-21. doi: 10.1093/infdis/146.3.313.
Systematic virologic surveillance in Houston over the past seven years has revealed that influenza virus infections have been epidemic during each respiratory disease season. The peak of the occurrence of acute respiratory illnesses that caused patients to seek medical care always coincided with the peak of influenza virus activity. The peak number of deaths attributed to pneumonia or influenza followed the peak of influenza virus activity by about two weeks. This relationship was constant even though the time of the epidemic peak ranged from as early as the third week of December to as late as the second week of March. No increase in deaths occurred in the absence of influenza virus activity. Therefore, the methods used to predict base-line mortality that show a seasonal rise in the absence of influenza activity may be inaccurate and, if so, lead to underestimation of mortality associated with influenza virus infections.
过去七年在休斯顿开展的系统性病毒学监测显示，在每个呼吸道疾病季节，流感病毒感染都呈流行态势。导致患者就医的急性呼吸道疾病发病高峰总是与流感病毒活动高峰相吻合。归因于肺炎或流感的死亡人数峰值在流感病毒活动高峰之后约两周出现。即便流行高峰时间最早从12月的第三周持续至3月的第二周，这种关系依然恒定。在没有流感病毒活动的情况下，死亡人数并未增加。因此，用于预测在无流感活动时呈季节性上升的基线死亡率的方法可能不准确，若如此，则会导致低估与流感病毒感染相关的死亡率。
