Bongaarts J
Stud Fam Plann. 1982 Jun-Jul;13(6-7):179-89.
Based on the application of an aggregate reproductive model, this study demonstrates that a small number of intermediate fertility variables are responsible for most of the variation in fertility levels of populations. Four variables--proportion married, contraception, induced abortion, and postpartum infecundability--are generally the most important determinants of fertility; the other intermediate factors are of less interest except in unusual circumstances. These four factors explain 96 percent of the variance in the total fertility rate in a sample of 41 populations that include developing and developed countries as well as historical populations. In the last section, the average fertility effect of the principal intermediate fertility variables is estimated for groups of contemporary populations with different total fertility rates.
基于一个综合生育模型的应用，本研究表明，少数中间生育变量导致了人口生育水平的大部分变化。四个变量——结婚比例、避孕、人工流产和产后不孕——通常是生育的最重要决定因素；其他中间因素除在特殊情况下外，较少受到关注。在一个包含发展中国家、发达国家以及历史人口的41个种群样本中，这四个因素解释了总生育率差异的96%。在最后一部分，针对具有不同总生育率的当代人群组，估计了主要中间生育变量的平均生育效应。
