Glynn R J, Rosner B, Silbert J E
Circulation. 1982 Oct;66(4):724-31. doi: 10.1161/01.cir.66.4.724.
We examined the relation of longitudinal changes in cholesterol and triglyceride to the subsequent development of heart disease. The data were from 1437 participants of the Normative Aging Study, a prospective study of men from the Boston area who were free of ischemic heart disease on two examinations approximately 5 years apart. Forty-four had symptoms or ECG findings of ischemic heart disease after their second but before their third examination, a period of 3-5 years. The risk of heart disease was studied using a multiple logistic risk model that took into account smoking and other risk factors. Changes in cholesterol and triglyceride levels between Exams 1 and 2, when corrected for regression to the mean, were better predictors of heart disease incurred between Exams 2 and 3 than initial levels of cholesterol, triglyceride or systolic blood pressure. When two age groups (28-52 years and 53-85 years) were considered, changes were important predictors in each age group. These findings suggest the importance of monitoring lipid changes over time.
我们研究了胆固醇和甘油三酯的纵向变化与随后心脏病发生之间的关系。数据来自规范衰老研究的1437名参与者，这是一项对波士顿地区男性进行的前瞻性研究，这些男性在大约相隔5年的两次检查中均无缺血性心脏病。44人在第二次检查后但在第三次检查前（间隔3 - 5年）出现了缺血性心脏病的症状或心电图表现。使用考虑了吸烟和其他风险因素的多重逻辑风险模型研究了心脏病风险。在对均值回归进行校正后，第一次和第二次检查之间胆固醇和甘油三酯水平的变化，比胆固醇、甘油三酯或收缩压的初始水平，能更好地预测第二次和第三次检查之间发生的心脏病。当考虑两个年龄组（28 - 52岁和53 - 85岁）时，变化在每个年龄组中都是重要的预测因素。这些发现表明了随时间监测血脂变化的重要性。
