Munley P H, Hyer L A
J Clin Psychol. 1978 Oct;34(4):833-8. doi: 10.1002/1097-4679(197810)34:4<833::aid-jclp2270340403>3.0.co;2-u.
Follows up an earlier investigation in which demographic and clinical characteristics of psychiatric patients were used to predict readmission within 3 months of discharge. In the initial study, stepwise multiple regression analysis identified six variables as the optimal set of predictors for readmission within 3 months of discharge: type of discharge, number of prior psychiatric hospitalizations, race, suicide attempt within 1 month of admission, subjective report of depression upon admission, and occupational level (R = .452). In the present study the same sample was followed up at 1 year after discharge, and demographic and clinical variables were used to predict readmission within 1 year of discharge. Stepwise multiple regression analysis identified three variables as the optimal set of predictors for readmission within 1 year of discharge: past history of suicidal behavior, subjective report of depression upon admission, and number of prior psychiatric hospitalizations. Changes in predictors as a function of length of follow-up period are considered, and implications of the findings for identifying high-risk readmission candidates are discussed.
本研究对一项早期调查进行了随访，该早期调查利用精神病患者的人口统计学和临床特征来预测出院后3个月内的再入院情况。在最初的研究中，逐步多元回归分析确定了六个变量作为出院后3个月内再入院的最佳预测指标集：出院类型、既往精神病住院次数、种族、入院后1个月内的自杀企图、入院时的抑郁主观报告以及职业水平（R = 0.452）。在本研究中，对同一样本在出院后1年进行了随访，并使用人口统计学和临床变量来预测出院后1年内的再入院情况。逐步多元回归分析确定了三个变量作为出院后1年内再入院的最佳预测指标集：既往自杀行为史、入院时的抑郁主观报告以及既往精神病住院次数。考虑了预测指标随随访期长度的变化，并讨论了研究结果对识别高风险再入院患者的意义。
