Prognostic indicators in stage III and localized stage IV breast cancer.

One hundred eighty-three patients with Stage III and nonmetastatic Stage IV breast cancer, seen between 1960-1975 at the Division of Radiation Oncology, Mallinckrodt Institute of Radiology, were retrospectively analyzed to determine the prognostic significance of the following clinical features: (1) "grave signs" (skin ulceration, skin fixation, chest wall fixation, and edema); (2) size of primary tumor; (3) nodal stage; and (4) inflammatory changes. Since therapy among 147 patients with noninflammatory cancer comprised of either irradiation alone (54 patients) or surgery plus irradiation (93 patients), all the above factors were analyzed also with respect to the method of treatment. In 147 patients with noninflammatory carcinoma, the local failure rate, regional failure rate, distant failure rate and five-year disease free survival were all unaffected by the presence or absence of "grave signs," whether treated by irradiation alone or surgery plus irradiation. The size of the primary tumor, in patients treated with irradiation alone, influenced the rate of local failure (44% for tumors 0-8 cm and 76% for tumors greater than or equal to 8 cm) and five-year disease-free survival (30 versus 4%, respectively). Such a statistically significant difference in local failure rate or disease-free survival was not noted when treated with combined modality. N stage also influenced the prognosis in patients treated with irradiation alone since the regional failure rate increased from 9% for N0, N1 to 58% for N2, N3 patients. This was reflected in a decreased disease-free survival (4 versus 30%) for patients with advanced nodal disease who were treated with irradiation alone. No such difference was noted when the nodal disease was treated with a combination of surgery and irradiation. The 36 patients with inflammatory carcinoma had essentially the same incidence of local, regional and distant failure as the 147 patients with noninflammatory carcinoma but the appearance of distant metastases occurred significantly earlier in patients with inflammatory carcinoma than in those with noninflammatory carcinoma. This earlier appearance of distant metastases was reflected in the significantly lower disease-free survival for the patients with inflammatory carcinoma (6 versus 28%). The data from this analysis suggests that consideration should be given to removing the presence of grave signs from the current AJC staging system and substituting in its place the size of the primary tumor (less than 8 cm versus greater than or equal to 8 cm). Further analysis on a large number of patients is needed to substantitate this recommendation.