Hansen E S, Olsen J H, Tilt B
Int J Epidemiol. 1982 Dec;11(4):356-61. doi: 10.1093/ije/11.4.356.
This is a cohort study of the mortality among chimney sweeps in Copenhagen, Denmark, during 1958-77. Nearly all the chimney sweeps started in the trade around the age of 15, and so this age gives the time of first exposure to the environmental conditions of the trade. The analysis applies a continuous time model with stratification by cause of death (cancer, non-cancer), time and age, where cumulative mortality rates are derived from current mortality tables. For each stratum of interest the observed/expected mortality ratio (O/E ratio) is calculated and a test performed, based on the normal distribution. The main result is a significantly higher cancer mortality for the 40-69 year age class compared with the population at large (O/E ratio = 3.9).
这是一项关于1958年至1977年间丹麦哥本哈根烟囱清洁工死亡率的队列研究。几乎所有烟囱清洁工都是在15岁左右开始从事这一行业的,因此这个年龄代表了首次接触该行业环境条件的时间。分析采用了一个连续时间模型,按死因(癌症、非癌症)、时间和年龄进行分层,其中累积死亡率是根据当前死亡率表得出的。对于每个感兴趣的分层,计算观察到的/预期的死亡率比值(O/E比值),并基于正态分布进行检验。主要结果是,40至69岁年龄组的癌症死亡率显著高于总体人群(O/E比值 = 3.9)。