Wada Y
Jpn J Med Sci Biol. 1982 Aug;35(4):183-96. doi: 10.7883/yoken1952.35.183.
The data collected by the Onchocerciasis Research and Control Project in Guatemala were theoretically analyzed. First, Muench's simple catalytic model was applied to the age distribution of the microfilaria-positive rate in each village to obtain the force of infection. The intensity of infection, expressed by force of infection, with Onchocerca volvulus in humans of individual villages was found to be clearly associated with the distribution and abundance of the vector, Simulium ochraceum. By comparing the values of the force of infection between males and females in a village, it can be decided whether humans were infected mainly outside the village or inside. The greater force of infection found in males was considered to be attributable to the more frequent visit of males than females to the mountainous areas where the density of S. ochraceum is higher. On the other hand, the force of infection of males was nearly equal to that of females when the S. ochraceum density was high inside the villages, suggesting the occurrence of within-village infection. Through further theoretical considerations, a mathematical model for the relation between the biting density of vectors and the microfilaria-positive rate of humans in a village was proposed, and the critical density of vectors for maintaining the endemic of onchocerciasis was estimated.
对危地马拉盘尾丝虫病研究与控制项目收集的数据进行了理论分析。首先，将明奇的简单催化模型应用于每个村庄微丝蚴阳性率的年龄分布，以获得感染强度。发现以感染强度表示的各个村庄人体中盘尾丝虫的感染强度与传播媒介奥氏蚋的分布和数量密切相关。通过比较一个村庄中男性和女性的感染强度值，可以确定人体感染主要是在村外还是村内发生。男性感染强度较高被认为是由于男性比女性更频繁地前往奥氏蚋密度较高的山区。另一方面，当村内奥氏蚋密度较高时，男性的感染强度与女性几乎相等，这表明存在村内感染。通过进一步的理论思考，提出了一个关于传播媒介叮咬密度与村庄内人体微丝蚴阳性率之间关系的数学模型，并估计了维持盘尾丝虫病流行的传播媒介临界密度。
