Robins L N
Psychol Med. 1978 Nov;8(4):611-22. doi: 10.1017/s0033291700018821.
Results are compared in studies of 4 male cohorts - 1 all white, 1 all black, and 2 racially representative of the population - growing up in different eras, followed past varying portions of their adult lives, living in different parts of the US. Despite sample differences and differences in sources of information and in the variables used to measure both childhood predictors and adult outcomes, some striking replications appear with respect to childhood predictors of adult antisocial behaviour. All types of antisocial behaviour in childhood predict a high level of antisocial behaviour in adulthood and each kind of adult antisocial behaviour is predicted by the number of childhood antisocial behaviours, indicating that adult and childhood antisocial behaviour both form syndromes and that these syndromes are closely interconnected. Also confirmed across studies are: (1) adult antisocial behaviour virtually requires childhood antisocial behaviour; (2) most antisocial children do not become antisocial adults; (3) the variety of antisocial behaviour in childhood is a better predictor of adult antisocial behaviour than is any particular behaviour; (4) adult antisocial behaviour is better predicted by childhood behaviour than by family background or social class of rearing; (5) social class makes little contribution to the prediction of serious adult antisocial behaviour.
研究对4组男性队列的结果进行了比较,这4组队列分别为:1组全部是白人,1组全部是黑人,还有2组在种族上具有人群代表性,他们在不同时代长大,随后在成年后的不同阶段被跟踪随访,居住在美国的不同地区。尽管样本存在差异,信息来源以及用于衡量童年预测因素和成人结局的变量也有所不同,但在成人反社会行为的童年预测因素方面出现了一些显著的重复现象。童年时期的所有反社会行为类型都预示着成年后会有高度的反社会行为,而每一种成人反社会行为都可由童年反社会行为的数量预测,这表明成人和童年反社会行为都构成综合征,且这些综合征紧密相连。各项研究还证实了以下几点:(1)成人反社会行为实际上需要童年反社会行为;(2)大多数有反社会行为的儿童不会成为有反社会行为的成年人;(3)童年反社会行为的多样性比任何一种特定行为更能预测成人反社会行为;(4)童年行为比家庭背景或养育的社会阶层更能预测成人反社会行为;(5)社会阶层对严重成人反社会行为的预测作用不大。