Heaton R K, Grant I, Anthony W Z, Lehman R A
J Clin Neuropsychol. 1981 Jul;3(2):121-41. doi: 10.1080/01688638108403118.
The diagnostic accuracy of two clinicians was compared with that of the Russell, Neuringer, and Goldstein (1970) quasi-actuarial system for interpreting the Halstead-Reitan Battery (HRB). The clinicians' independent ratings of HRB data were highly reliable, and were more accurate than the automated system in predicting the presence and laterality of structural cerebral lesions. Comparisons of the subgroups correctly and incorrectly classified by the clinicians suggest some intrinsic limitations of the test data in predicting lesion presence, and especially laterality. Classification accuracy was related to etiology of lesions, and also to extent and location of focal lesions. Neither the clinicians nor the automated system exceeded base-rate predictions regarding chronicity, but this may have been due to sampling bias in the acute group. Although the clinicians' superiority in two of the three prediction tasks may be due to their greater flexibility in weighting complex and unique patterns of test data, it remains to be seen whether this potential advantage will hold up against more sophisticated actuarial methods.
将两位临床医生的诊断准确性与罗素、诺伊林格和戈尔茨坦(1970年)用于解释霍尔斯特德-雷坦成套测验(HRB)的准精算系统的诊断准确性进行了比较。临床医生对HRB数据的独立评分具有高度可靠性,并且在预测大脑结构性病变的存在和病变部位方面比自动化系统更准确。对临床医生正确和错误分类的亚组进行的比较表明,测试数据在预测病变存在,尤其是病变部位方面存在一些内在局限性。分类准确性与病变的病因有关,也与局灶性病变的范围和位置有关。临床医生和自动化系统在慢性病变方面都没有超过基础概率预测,但这可能是由于急性组的抽样偏差所致。尽管临床医生在三项预测任务中的两项中具有优势可能是因为他们在权衡复杂且独特的测试数据模式时具有更大的灵活性,但这种潜在优势能否经受住更复杂的精算方法的考验还有待观察。