Scott D W, Factor L E, Gorry G A
Health Serv Res. 1978 Winter;13(4):404-17.
Response time, i.e., the time from dispatch of an ambulance to its arrival at the scene of an emergency, is an important measure of performance in an urban ambulance system. We developed a model that predicts the entire distribution of response time, explicitly accounting for the rate and spatial distribution of demand, variable ambulance velocities, and queueing effects. We tested the model using data sampled from 3,936 ambulance runs in Houston and achieved close agreement between empirical and predicted distributions of response time. Our use of probability theory to predict response times yielded a model that complements those previously reported for planning and evaluating urban ambulance systems.
响应时间，即从救护车派遣到抵达紧急现场的时间，是城市救护车系统性能的一项重要衡量指标。我们开发了一个模型，该模型可预测响应时间的整体分布，明确考虑了需求的速率和空间分布、救护车速度的变化以及排队效应。我们使用从休斯顿3936次救护车出诊中采样的数据对该模型进行了测试，结果表明响应时间的经验分布与预测分布之间达成了高度一致。我们运用概率论来预测响应时间，得到了一个可补充先前用于城市救护车系统规划和评估的模型。
