Forecasting physician workforce requirements in Minnesota.

The existing oversupply, specialty imbalance, and geographic maldistribution of clinicians are inconsistent with the goals of health system reform in Minnesota. Health professional workforce projections can help the private and public sectors make informed decisions to assure that the future supply of health professionals reasonably approximates requirements. Appropriate methodologies for projecting national health professional requirements, based on existing HMO staffing patterns, should be applied to Minnesota. In the absence of workforce projections, a variety of assumptions about changes in Minnesota's health care system that will affect workforce supply and requirements can, nonetheless, be made. Limitations on the state's ability to influence the health professional workforce within its borders are noted.