Dose- and time-response for breast cancer risk after radiation therapy for benign breast disease.

Exposure of the breast to ionising radiation increases the risk of breast cancer, especially among young women. However, some issues remain controversial, for instance the shape of the dose-response curve and the expression of time-related excess. The main purpose of this report was to examine the dose-response curves for radiation-induced breast cancer formulated according to radiobiological target theories. Another purpose was to analyse the time-related excess of breast cancer risk after exposure when dose and age at first exposure were held constant. Breast cancer incidence was analysed in a cohort of 3090 women diagnosed with benign breast disease during 1925-61 (median age 37 years). Of these, 1216 were treated with radiation therapy. The dose range was 0-50 Gy (mean 5.8 Gy). The incidence rate as function of dose was analysed using a linear-quadratic Poisson regression model. Cell-killing effects and other modifying effects were incorporated through additional log-linear terms. Additive and multiplicative models were compared in estimating the time-related excess. The analysis, which was based on 278 breast cancer cases, showed a linear dose-response relationship at low to medium dose levels with a cell-killing effect of 5% Gy-1 (95% confidence interval 2-9%). For a given absorbed dose and age at first exposure the time-related excess was proportional to the background rates with a suggestion that the excess remains throughout life.