Dilley M, Heyman B N
Disasters. 1995 Sep;19(3):181-93. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-7717.1995.tb00338.x.
The connection between El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and precipitation and temperature variability worldwide is increasingly well understood. ENSO has been linked to droughts and flooding in some regions. This paper uses the disaster history database of the U.S. Agency for International Development's Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance to examine the link between ENSO events and droughts or floods of sufficient magnitude to trigger international disasters. Worldwide, disasters triggered by droughts are twice as frequent during year two of ENSO warm events than during other years. No such relationship is apparent in the case of flood disasters. Drought disasters occur during year two of ENSO warm events significantly more frequently than in other years in Southern Africa and Southeast Asia. No regional pattern emerges from a comparable analysis of flood disasters. Those places likely to be affected by ENSO-triggered droughts can take proactive measures to mitigate the impacts.
厄尔尼诺/南方涛动（ENSO）事件与全球降水和温度变化之间的联系日益为人们所熟知。ENSO与某些地区的干旱和洪水有关。本文利用美国国际开发署美国对外灾难援助办公室的灾难历史数据库，研究ENSO事件与足以引发国际灾难的干旱或洪水之间的联系。在全球范围内，ENSO暖事件发生的第二年，由干旱引发的灾害频率是其他年份的两倍。而洪水灾害则不存在这种明显的关系。在南部非洲和东南亚，ENSO暖事件发生的第二年干旱灾害的发生频率明显高于其他年份。对洪水灾害进行类似分析时，未发现区域模式。那些可能受到ENSO引发的干旱影响的地方可以采取积极措施减轻影响。
