Goldstein Eyal, Erinjery Joseph J, Martin Gerardo, Kasturiratne Anuradhani, Ediriweera Dileepa Senajith, Somaweera Ruchira, de Silva Hithanadura Janaka, Diggle Peter, Lalloo David G, Murray Kris A, Iwamura Takuya
School of Zoology, Department of Life Sciences, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel.
Ecosystem Modeling, University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany.
iScience. 2023 Jan 7;26(2):105946. doi: 10.1016/j.isci.2023.105946. eCollection 2023 Feb 17.
Snakebite affects more than 1.8 million people annually. Factors explaining snakebite variability include farmers' behaviors, snake ecology and climate. One unstudied issue is how farmers' adaptation to novel climates affect their health. Here we examined potential impacts of adaptation on snakebite using individual-based simulations, focusing on strategies meant to counteract major crop yield decline because of changing rainfall in Sri Lanka. For rubber cropping, adaptation led to a 33% increase in snakebite incidence per farmer work hour because of work during risky months, but a 17% decrease in total annual snakebites because of decreased labor in plantations overall. Rice farming adaptation decreased snakebites by 16%, because of shifting labor towards safer months, whereas tea adaptation led to a general increase. These results indicate that adaptation could have both a positive and negative effect, potentially intensified by ENSO. Our research highlights the need for assessing adaptation strategies for potential health maladaptations.
每年有超过180万人遭受蛇咬。解释蛇咬发生率变化的因素包括农民的行为、蛇的生态和气候。一个尚未研究的问题是农民对新气候的适应如何影响他们的健康。在这里，我们使用基于个体的模拟研究了适应对蛇咬的潜在影响，重点关注旨在应对由于斯里兰卡降雨变化导致主要作物产量大幅下降的策略。对于橡胶种植，由于在危险月份工作，适应导致每个农民工作小时的蛇咬发生率增加33%，但由于种植园总体劳动力减少，年度蛇咬总数减少17%。水稻种植适应使蛇咬减少了16%，因为劳动力转移到了更安全的月份，而茶叶种植适应则导致总体增加。这些结果表明，适应可能既有积极影响也有消极影响，厄尔尼诺南方涛动可能会加剧这种影响。我们的研究强调了评估适应策略对潜在健康适应不良影响的必要性。
