Projections of the future supply of family physicians in Connecticut: a basis for regional planning.

BACKGROUND

There is a growing consensus that there is a shortage of primary care physicians in the United States. Many proposals have been made to increase the national supply of such physicians; however, because regional physician distribution and needs are highly variable, such proposals require evaluation in light of regional physician demands.

METHODS

An examination was conducted of the projected supply in the year 2002 of active, nonfederal family physicians and general practitioners (FP/GPs) involved in direct patient care on a state-by-state basis, with particular focus on Connecticut. Data on the 1992 supply and demographics of FP/GPs were obtained from the American Medical Association Physician Masterfile. These data together with residency graduation, regional retention, and interstate migration data were used to project state FP/GP supplies in 2002 by estimating additions to and losses from state supplies between 1992 and 2002.

RESULTS

In 1992, Connecticut had relatively fewer and older FP/GPs than the nation as a whole. By 2002, the supply of Connecticut FP/GPs is projected to decrease by 9%. Nine other states have similar potential for a net loss of FP/GPs over the same period.

CONCLUSIONS

In the context of a national shortage of primary care physicians, a decline in the supply of FP/GPs in 10 states would be undesirable. Such a decline in the number of FP/GPs in undersupplied states could be averted by increasing the number of graduates from state residency programs, importing FP/GPs from out of state, promoting retention of state FP/GPs and residency graduates, and retraining existing state physicians in family practice or primary care.