Sun K, Krause G F, Mayer F L, Ellersieck M R, Basu A P
Department of Statistics, University of Missouri, Columbia 65211, USA.
Risk Anal. 1995 Apr;15(2):247-52. doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1995.tb00318.x.
In acute toxicity testing, organisms are continuously exposed to progressively increasing concentrations of a chemical and deaths of test organisms are recorded at several selected times. The results of the test are traditionally summarized by a dose-response curve, and the time course of effect is usually ignored for lack of a suitable model. A model which integrates the combined effects of dose and exposure duration on response is derived from the biological mechanisms of aquatic toxicity, and a statistically efficient approach for estimating acute toxicity by fitting the proposed model is developed in this paper. The proposed procedure has been computerized as software and a typical data set is used to illustrate the theory and procedure. The new statistical technique is also tested by a data base of a variety of chemical and fish species.
在急性毒性试验中，生物体持续暴露于浓度逐渐增加的化学物质中，并在几个选定的时间记录试验生物的死亡情况。传统上，试验结果通过剂量-反应曲线进行总结，而由于缺乏合适的模型，效应的时间进程通常被忽略。本文从水生毒性的生物学机制出发，推导了一个整合剂量和暴露持续时间对反应综合影响的模型，并开发了一种通过拟合所提出的模型来估计急性毒性的统计有效方法。所提出的程序已被编制成软件，并使用一个典型的数据集来说明理论和程序。还通过一个包含各种化学物质和鱼类物种的数据库对这种新的统计技术进行了测试。
