Vigotti M A, Rossi G, Zanobetti A, Benvenuti A, Repetto F, Bisanti L, Gianelle V, Lavecchia C, Azzolini L
IFC-CNR, Pisa.
Epidemiol Prev. 1995 Mar;19(62):85-9.
Short term effects of air pollutant levels on daily mortality were studied, using time series approach, in Milan from the year 1980 to 1989. The Poisson regression with autocorrelated residuals was applied. This paper reports preliminary results of the analyses on the association between total daily number of deaths and the 24h mean concentrations, on the same day, for two air pollutants: sulphur dioxide and total suspended particulate. A positive and curvilinear relation (with a logarithmic shape) has been found between total daily mortality and concentration levels for each pollutant. This result confirm a steeper increase in mortality at low concentrations, lower than the international standards in use at the moment.
采用时间序列方法，对1980年至1989年米兰市空气污染物水平对每日死亡率的短期影响进行了研究。应用了具有自相关残差的泊松回归。本文报告了关于两种空气污染物（二氧化硫和总悬浮颗粒物）当日每日死亡总数与24小时平均浓度之间关联分析的初步结果。已发现每种污染物的每日总死亡率与浓度水平之间呈正相关且为曲线关系（呈对数形状）。这一结果证实，在低浓度时死亡率的上升更为陡峭，低于目前使用的国际标准。
