Sattenspiel L, Dietz K
Department of Anthropology, University of Missouri, Columbia, USA.
Math Biosci. 1995 Jul-Aug;128(1-2):71-91. doi: 10.1016/0025-5564(94)00068-b.
A model for the spread of infectious diseases among discrete geographic regions is presented that incorporates a mobility process that describes how contact occurs between individuals from different regions. The general formulation of the mobility process is described, and it is shown that the formulation encapsulates a range of mobility behavior from complete isolation of all regions (no mobility) to permanent migration between regions. It is then shown how this mobility process fits into an SIR epidemic model, and two examples are given extending its use. The examples include a model for disease transmission in a population with two distinct mobility patterns operating and a model developed to describe a 1984 measles epidemic on the Caribbean island of Dominica.
本文提出了一种用于描述传染病在离散地理区域间传播的模型，该模型纳入了一个流动过程，用以描述来自不同区域的个体之间是如何发生接触的。文中描述了流动过程的一般公式，并表明该公式涵盖了从所有区域完全隔离（无流动）到区域间永久迁移的一系列流动行为。接着展示了这种流动过程如何融入SIR传染病模型，并给出了两个扩展其应用的例子。这些例子包括一个针对具有两种不同流动模式人群的疾病传播模型，以及一个为描述1984年加勒比岛国多米尼克麻疹疫情而开发的模型。
