Georgopoulos P G
Ozone Research Center, Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences Institute, Piscataway, NJ 08855-1179, USA.
Environ Health Perspect. 1995 Mar;103 Suppl 2(Suppl 2):107-32. doi: 10.1289/ehp.95103s2107.
The Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) of 1990 have established selected comprehensive, three-dimensional, Photochemical Air Quality Simulation Models (PAQSMs) as the required regulatory tools for analyzing the urban and regional problem of high ambient ozone levels across the United States. These models are currently applied to study and establish strategies for meeting the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for ozone in nonattainment areas; State Implementation Plans (SIPs) resulting from these efforts must be submitted to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) in November 1994. The following presentation provides an overview and discussion of the regulatory ozone modeling process and its implications. First, the PAQSM-based ozone attainment demonstration process is summarized in the framework of the 1994 SIPs. Then, following a brief overview of the representation of physical and chemical processes in PAQSMs, the essential attributes of standard modeling systems currently in regulatory use are presented in a nonmathematical, self-contained format, intended to provide a basic understanding of both model capabilities and limitations. The types of air quality, emission, and meteorological data needed for applying and evaluating PAQSMs are discussed, as well as the sources, availability, and limitations of existing databases. The issue of evaluating a model's performance in order to accept it as a tool for policy making is discussed, and various methodologies for implementing this objective are summarized. Selected interim results from diagnostic analyses, which are performed as a component of the regulatory ozone modeling process for the Philadelphia-New Jersey region, are also presented to provide some specific examples related to the general issues discussed in this work. Finally, research needs related to a) the evaluation and refinement of regulatory ozone modeling, b) the characterization of uncertainty in photochemical modeling, and c) the improvement of the model-based ozone-attainment demonstration process are presented to identify future directions in this area.
1990年的《清洁空气法修正案》（CAAA）确定了选定的综合三维光化学空气质量模拟模型（PAQSMs），作为分析美国城市和区域高环境臭氧水平问题所需的监管工具。目前，这些模型被用于研究和制定实现未达标地区臭氧国家环境空气质量标准（NAAQS）的策略；这些工作产生的州实施计划（SIPs）必须在1994年11月提交给美国环境保护局（U.S. EPA）。以下介绍对监管臭氧建模过程及其影响进行了概述和讨论。首先，在1994年SIPs的框架内总结了基于PAQSMs的臭氧达标论证过程。然后，在简要概述PAQSMs中物理和化学过程的表示之后，以非数学的、自成一体的形式介绍了目前监管使用的标准建模系统的基本属性，旨在提供对模型能力和局限性的基本理解。讨论了应用和评估PAQSMs所需的空气质量、排放和气象数据类型，以及现有数据库的来源、可用性和局限性。讨论了评估模型性能以便将其作为决策工具接受的问题，并总结了实现这一目标的各种方法。还介绍了作为费城-新泽西地区监管臭氧建模过程一部分进行的诊断分析的选定中期结果，以提供与本工作中讨论的一般问题相关的一些具体示例。最后，提出了与以下方面相关的研究需求：a）监管臭氧建模的评估和完善，b）光化学建模中不确定性的表征，c）基于模型的臭氧达标论证过程的改进，以确定该领域的未来方向。
