Le Pont F, Costagliola D, Massari V, Valleron A J
INSERM U263, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Faculté de Médecine St Antoine, Paris, France.
Int J Epidemiol. 1995 Apr;24(2):441-5. doi: 10.1093/ije/24.2.441.
This study presents estimates of the number of individuals contaminated by human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) via a blood transfusion received in France before the end of 1991 and those who have developed or will develop AIDS.
The computer simulation model takes into account several possible hypotheses concerning the annual number of infected blood donations collected before the introduction of HIV screening in August 1985, those collected between August 1985 and December 1991 not excluded by the testing procedure due to the seroconversion period, the number of labile blood components elaborated from one donation, the 5-year mortality rate of blood recipients, and the incubation delay.
Results reproducing the evolution of the reported annual number of transfusion-associated AIDS cases were selected which enabled the estimation of the number of recipients infected (between 3300 and 4300) and of the number of transfusion-associated AIDS cases (between 1600 and 1800) compared with 1300 transfusion-associated AIDS cases reported by June 1993.
This methodology could be used for other countries provided information required by the model is available.
本研究给出了1991年底前在法国因接受输血而感染人类免疫缺陷病毒（HIV）的个体数量估计，以及已患上或将会患上艾滋病的个体数量估计。
该计算机模拟模型考虑了几个可能的假设，包括1985年8月引入HIV筛查之前每年采集的受感染血液捐赠数量、1985年8月至1991年12月期间因血清转化期未被检测程序排除的采集数量、从一次捐赠中制备的不稳定血液成分数量、输血接受者的5年死亡率以及潜伏期。
选择了重现报告的输血相关艾滋病病例年度数量演变的结果，据此估计受感染的接受者数量（3300至4300人之间）以及输血相关艾滋病病例数量（1600至1800人之间），与之相比，1993年6月报告的输血相关艾滋病病例为1300例。
如果能获得该模型所需的信息，这种方法可用于其他国家。
