Ycas M A
Soc Secur Bull. 1995 Spring;58(1):48-56.
The history of the Social Security programs in the United States falls into several distinct eras, defined by changing social, demographic, and economic conditions. At present the retirement component of these programs is moving into a stage of program maturation, which poses certain relatively well-understood changes to policymakers. The disability programs are also moving into the same set of societal conditions, but their impact is considerably more difficult to predict. Already disability incidence rates have experienced disturbingly large and poorly understood shifts. Developing a way to predict these shifts and to deal with the challenges that they make for existing programs is therefore a major priority of Social Security's current research agenda.
美国社会保障计划的历史可分为几个不同的时代，这些时代由不断变化的社会、人口和经济状况所界定。目前，这些计划的退休部分正进入计划成熟阶段，这给政策制定者带来了一些相对容易理解的变化。残疾计划也正进入相同的社会状况，但它们的影响要预测得多。残疾发生率已经出现了令人不安的大幅且难以理解的变化。因此，找到一种方法来预测这些变化并应对它们给现有计划带来的挑战，是社会保障当前研究议程的一项主要优先事项。
