Duleep H O
Division of Economic Research, Office of Research and Statistics of the Social Security Administration, Washington, DC.
Soc Secur Bull. 1994 Spring;57(1):37-52.
Each year the Social Security Administration forecasts the financial status of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) programs by projecting trends in key variables such as the labor-force participation and earnings of the U. S. population. In the difficult task of projecting the long-term financial status of Social Security, assumptions are made concerning the relationship of immigrants to Social Security. An important aspect of that relationship is the emigration of immigrants. This article describes the general assumptions related to the level and timing of emigration that underlie projections of Social Security's financial status and examines how closely these assumptions fit research findings based on a variety of data sources. Previous trends in emigration and factors that may affect current and future levels of emigration are described. The article also presents theoretical expectations and empirical evidence concerning the timing of emigration.
美国社会保障管理局每年都会通过预测关键变量（如美国人口的劳动力参与率和收入）的趋势，来预估老年、遗属及伤残保险（OASDI）计划的财务状况。在预测社会保障长期财务状况这项艰巨任务中，会对移民与社会保障的关系做出一些假设。这种关系的一个重要方面是移民的移出。本文描述了与移出水平和时间相关的一般假设，这些假设是社会保障财务状况预测的基础，并考察这些假设与基于各种数据源的研究结果的契合程度。文中还描述了以往的移出趋势以及可能影响当前和未来移出水平的因素。本文还给出了关于移出时间的理论预期和实证证据。
