评估癌症登记的完整性：德国双源捕获-再捕获方法的实证评估。
Estimating completeness of cancer registration: an empirical evaluation of the two source capture-recapture approach in Germany.
作者信息
Brenner H, Stegmaier C, Ziegler H
机构信息
Ludwig-Maximilians-University, Munich, Germany.
出版信息
J Epidemiol Community Health. 1995 Aug;49(4):426-30. doi: 10.1136/jech.49.4.426.
STUDY OBJECTIVE
In recent years, capture-recapture methods have become increasingly popular in estimating completeness of disease registries. This study aimed to assess the performance of the two source capture-recapture method in estimating the completeness of cancer registration.
DESIGN
The study was conducted in the population based cancer registry of Saarland, Germany, for which there are three main sources of notifications: reports by clinicians and pathologists, and death certificates. For groups of cases notified by one of the three sources, known completeness of registration by the other two sources was compared with the corresponding two source capture-recapture estimates.
PATIENTS
A total of 16,020 patients notified to the cancer registry in 1970, 1975, 1980, and 1985 were included in the analysis.
MAIN RESULTS
There was a tendency towards underestimation of completeness of notifications from pathologists and death certificates for patients notified by clinicians which was essentially confined to the older age groups. In contrast, capture-recapture methods tended to overestimate completeness of notifications from clinicians and death certificates for patients notified by pathologists. This overestimation was observed consistently in all age groups and for all of the most common cancer sites. Nevertheless, deviations of estimated completeness from known completeness were generally small or moderate. Agreement between estimated and known completeness was closest for patients notified by death certificates, although completeness was somewhat underestimated in patients above age 75. The observed patterns are in agreement with knowledge on clinical aspects and clinical management of cancer patients and with the circumstances of cancer registration in Saarland.
CONCLUSIONS
Careful application of capture-recapture methods may provide an alternative to traditional approaches for estimating completeness of cancer registration.
研究目的
近年来，捕获再捕获方法在估计疾病登记的完整性方面越来越受欢迎。本研究旨在评估双源捕获再捕获方法在估计癌症登记完整性方面的性能。
设计
该研究在德国萨尔州基于人群的癌症登记处进行，其主要有三种通知来源：临床医生和病理学家的报告以及死亡证明。对于由这三种来源之一通知的病例组，将另外两种来源已知的登记完整性与相应的双源捕获再捕获估计值进行比较。
患者
共有1970年、1975年、1980年和1985年通知癌症登记处的16,020名患者纳入分析。
主要结果
对于临床医生通知的患者，病理学家和死亡证明通知的完整性存在低估趋势，这主要局限于老年人群体。相比之下，捕获再捕获方法往往高估了病理学家通知的患者中临床医生和死亡证明通知的完整性。在所有年龄组和所有最常见的癌症部位均一致观察到这种高估。然而，估计的完整性与已知完整性的偏差通常较小或适中。对于死亡证明通知的患者，估计完整性与已知完整性之间的一致性最接近，尽管75岁以上患者的完整性有所低估。观察到的模式与癌症患者的临床方面和临床管理知识以及萨尔州癌症登记的情况一致。
结论
谨慎应用捕获再捕获方法可能为估计癌症登记完整性的传统方法提供一种替代方法。
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