Fergusson D M, Horwood L J, Lynskey M T
Christchurch Health and Development Study, Christchurch School of Medicine, Christchurch Hospital, New Zealand.
Addiction. 1995 Jul;90(7):935-46. doi: 10.1046/j.1360-0443.1995.9079356.x.
This paper examines the prevalence of abusive or hazardous alcohol consumption at age 16 years and the risk factors associated with such behaviour using data from a longitudinal study of a birth cohort of 953 children. Drinking behaviour was assessed on the basis of self-report measures of the frequency of alcohol consumption, reports of the typical and largest amounts of alcohol consumed and the frequency of alcohol-related problems. These measures were combined using latent class analysis methods to identify a group of adolescents (9.3% of the sample) who were characterized by high levels of abusive or hazardous drinking behaviour. Analysis of the risk factors associated with abusive/hazardous drinking identified three factors which were predictive of this behaviour at age 16 years: gender (p < 0.001); the largest amount of alcohol consumed at age 14 years (p < 0.05); and the extent of affiliation with substance using peers (p < 0.001). Further analysis suggested that the effects of other social, familial and individual risk factors on alcohol abuse were mediated via their effect on early drinking behaviour or via their influences on peer affiliations in adolescence. A tentative model of the pathways to adolescent alcohol abuse is discussed.
本文利用对953名儿童出生队列的纵向研究数据，考察了16岁时酗酒或有害饮酒的流行情况以及与这种行为相关的风险因素。饮酒行为是根据酒精消费频率的自我报告测量、典型饮酒量和最大饮酒量的报告以及与酒精相关问题的频率来评估的。使用潜在类别分析方法将这些测量结果结合起来，以识别一组青少年（占样本的9.3%），他们的特征是酗酒或有害饮酒行为水平较高。对与酗酒/有害饮酒相关的风险因素的分析确定了三个在16岁时可预测这种行为的因素：性别（p<0.001）；14岁时的最大饮酒量（p<0.05）；以及与使用毒品的同龄人交往的程度（p<0.001）。进一步的分析表明，其他社会、家庭和个人风险因素对酒精滥用的影响是通过它们对早期饮酒行为的影响或通过它们对青少年同伴交往的影响来介导的。本文讨论了青少年酒精滥用途径的初步模型。
