Ritchie J K, Powell-Tuck J, Lennard-Jones J E
Lancet. 1978 May 27;1(8074):1140-3. doi: 10.1016/s0140-6736(78)90312-4.
269 patients with ulcerative colitis and a history of less than 6 months when first seen at St. Mark's Hospital in the decade 1966--75 have been followed for up to 11 years. The outcome has been correlated with the maximum extent of the disease observed within 3 months of presentation. 75 patients required hospital admission, 56 within a year of presentation. Extensive colitis developed in 60 patients. The cumulative probability of the disease being extensive was 21% +/- 3% at 5 years and 29% +/- 4% at 10 years. 25 patients required surgical treatment. The cumulative probability of operation was 8% +/- 2% at 5 years and 15% +/- 4% at 10 years. 19 patients are known to have died. The expected number of deaths was 19.2.
1966年至1975年这十年间，269例溃疡性结肠炎患者首次在圣马克医院就诊时病史不足6个月，这些患者已被随访长达11年。结果与就诊后3个月内观察到的疾病最大范围相关。75例患者需要住院治疗，其中56例在就诊后一年内住院。60例患者发展为广泛性结肠炎。疾病发展为广泛性的累积概率在5年时为21%±3%，在10年时为29%±4%。25例患者需要手术治疗。手术的累积概率在5年时为8%±2%，在10年时为15%±4%。已知19例患者死亡。预期死亡人数为19.2。
