Eakin T, Witten M
University of Texas System, Department of Applications Research and Development, Balcones Research Center, Austin 78758-4497, USA.
Exp Gerontol. 1995 Jan-Feb;30(1):33-64. doi: 10.1016/0531-5565(94)00042-2.
An investigator-independent parameter, the prolate rectangularity index kappa for describing the so-called rectangularity of biological population survival curves, is introduced, developed, and applied to realworld survival datasets. This new rectangularity parameter is constructed using an intrinsic time scaling that places the intrinsic inflection point time at a value of unity so that species populations may be compared independently of their extrinsic life span distributions. The analytical expressions for the prolate rectangularity index of the theoretical Gompertz and Weibull continuous models are obtained, as are numerical values of this index for discrete experimental population survival data sets from two dissimilar species with orders of magnitude difference in extrinsic life span range. The values of the parameter are also compared for populations of a single species having differing dietary regimens, and for human demographic populations at decade intervals in extrinsic chronological time during the current century. It is found that scaling time, using the survival inflection point, appreciably collapses extrinsic survival profile dispersion among similar populations and allows a more meaningful comparison of profiles among dissimilar populations. Using this method of scaling, demographic populations within the United States are seen to have rectangularity parameter values that have been slowly drifting during this century toward values indicating a higher degree of rectangularity. In recent decades, however, the trend appears to be stabilizing with kappa values indicating no approach towards the theoretical maximum rectangularity. This apparent submaximal stabilization of kappa supports a hypothesis of no genetically pre-determined maximum life span in human populations. Or, if such a maximum exists, we are not currently near it.
引入了一个与研究者无关的参数——扁长矩形度指数κ,用于描述生物种群生存曲线的所谓矩形度,并对其进行了发展,还应用于实际生存数据集。这个新的矩形度参数是通过一种内在时间尺度构建的,该尺度将内在拐点时间设定为1,这样物种种群就可以独立于其外在寿命分布进行比较。得到了理论上的Gompertz和Weibull连续模型的扁长矩形度指数的解析表达式,以及来自两个外在寿命范围相差几个数量级的不同物种的离散实验种群生存数据集的该指数的数值。还比较了单一物种不同饮食方案下种群的该参数值,以及本世纪按十年间隔划分的人类人口统计种群的该参数值。结果发现,使用生存拐点对时间进行尺度变换,能显著减少相似种群中外在生存曲线分布的离散度,并能更有意义地比较不同种群的曲线。使用这种尺度变换方法,可以看到美国境内的人口统计种群的矩形度参数值在本世纪一直在缓慢向表明更高矩形度的值漂移。然而,在最近几十年里,这种趋势似乎趋于稳定,κ值表明没有趋近理论上的最大矩形度。κ值这种明显的次最大稳定状态支持了人类种群不存在基因预先确定的最大寿命的假设。或者说,如果存在这样的最大值,我们目前还未接近它。