Prediction of progression of the curve in girls who have adolescent idiopathic scoliosis of moderate severity. Logistic regression analysis based on data from The Brace Study of the Scoliosis Research Society.

In a study conducted by the Scoliosis Research Society, 159 girls with a mean age of thirteen years (range, ten to fifteen years) who had adolescent idiopathic scoliosis were followed prospectively until skeletal maturity or until the curve had increased 6 degrees or more. All patients had had an initial curve of 25 to 35 degrees and an apical level between the eighth thoracic and first lumbar vertebrae, inclusive. Of the 159 patients, 120 were observed without treatment and thirty-nine were managed with lateral electrical surface stimulation. The curve progressed at least 6 degrees in eighty patients. There was no apparent difference in the outcome between the patients who were managed with observation only and those who were given electrical stimulation. Logistic regression analysis was performed to determine which of eleven factors were predictive of progression of the scoliotic curve. A Risser sign of 0 or 1, an apical level cephalad to the twelfth thoracic vertebra, and an imbalance of ten millimeters or less were found to be independently prognostic of progression of more than 6 degrees. A prognostic model that included these three factors and chronological age allowed correct classification of the curve as either progressive or non-progressive in 81 per cent of these patients who had a thoracic or thoracolumbar adolescent idiopathic scoliosis. The positive predictive value was 82 per cent, the negative predictive value was 80 per cent, and the sensitivity and specificity were each 81 per cent.