Sergiev V P, Boev B V, Orlov V S, Baranova A M, Sabgaĭda T P, Ezhov M N
Med Parazitol (Mosk). 1994 Jul-Sep(3):8-13.
The paper describes procedures for stratifying malariogenic areas that are homogeneous in the development pattern for epidemic stratum rises, which will be used to design a set of mathematical malaria spread models. The first stage of the procedures is to stratify P. falciparum and P. vivax malaria on phase planes. The morbidity rate of P. falciparum and P. vivax malaria was analyzed in the north-western areas of India in 1975-1990. Eighty-two observations provided 4 types of phase curves for tropic malaria, which form a polygon, a loop polygon, U-shaped ones and those without any specific signs and 4 groups of phase curves for P. vivax malaria and the U-shaped phase curve with a loop for P. vivax malaria. It is shown that there is a steady-state pattern of phase curve changes in 71%. It is suggested that the pattern of a phase curve can be a diagnostic characterization of the given area.
本文描述了对疟疾高发地区进行分层的程序,这些地区在流行层上升的发展模式上具有同质性,这将用于设计一组数学疟疾传播模型。该程序的第一阶段是在相平面上对恶性疟和间日疟进行分层。分析了1975 - 1990年印度西北部地区恶性疟和间日疟的发病率。82次观测为热带疟疾提供了4种类型的相曲线,它们形成多边形、环形多边形、U形以及无任何特定特征的曲线,为间日疟提供了4组相曲线以及一条带环的间日疟U形相曲线。结果表明,71%的相曲线变化存在稳态模式。有人提出,相曲线模式可以作为给定地区的诊断特征。