Ferrell W R
Systems and Industrial Engineering Department, University of Arizona, Tucson.
Scand J Psychol. 1994 Dec;35(4):297-314. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-9450.1994.tb00955.x.
In a recent issue of this journal, Winman and Juslin (34, 135-148, 1993) present a model of the calibration of subjective probability judgments for sensory discrimination tasks. They claim that the model predicts a pervasive underconfidence bias observed in such tasks, and present evidence from a training experiment that they interpret as supporting the notion that different models are needed to describe judgment of confidence in sensory and in cognitive tasks. The model is actually part of the more comprehensive decision variable partition model of subjective probability calibration that was originally proposed in Ferrell and McGoey (Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 26, 32-53, 1980). The characteristics of the model are described and it is demonstrated that the model does not predict underconfidence, that it is fully compatible with the overconfidence frequently found in calibration studies with cognitive tasks, and that it well represents experimental results from such studies. It is concluded that only a single model is needed for both types of task.
在本期刊最近的一期中，温曼和尤斯林（《心理学报》34卷，第135 - 148页，1993年）提出了一个用于感官辨别任务中主观概率判断校准的模型。他们声称该模型预测了在此类任务中观察到的普遍的信心不足偏差，并展示了来自一项训练实验的证据，他们将这些证据解释为支持这样一种观点，即需要不同的模型来描述对感官任务和认知任务的信心判断。该模型实际上是费雷尔和麦戈伊最初提出的主观概率校准更全面的决策变量划分模型的一部分（《组织行为与人类绩效》，第26卷，第32 - 53页，1980年）。文中描述了该模型的特征，并证明该模型并不预测信心不足，它与在认知任务校准研究中经常发现的过度自信完全兼容，并且它很好地代表了此类研究的实验结果。得出的结论是，这两种类型的任务只需要一个单一的模型。
