Wisconsin's future requirements for generalist physicians: is the state's training capacity sufficient?

The need for expansion of generalist residency training programs in Wisconsin is considered, using population-based considerations and projection models that estimate the future statewide supply of and requirements for generalist physicians. In 1990, Wisconsin's generalist physician-to-population ratio was relatively low, at 59 per 100,000 population. The supply of generalists per 100,000 population was also highly variable across broad geographic areas of the state, with 16 of Wisconsin's 25 Health Service Areas having ratios which fell below 59 per 100,000 population. These patterns may not automatically translate into the need for expansion of Wisconsin's generalist residency training capacity, however. The projection model indicates that, even with no expansion of graduate medical education capacity for generalist physicians, the statewide supply could grow to more than 70 generalists per 100,000 population by the year 2015. Expansion of the state's generalist training capacity would also not guarantee that any additional generalist physicians trained in the state would actually locate in areas where they would be most needed. Policy efforts to provide incentives for generalist physicians to locate in under-served areas should continue to be supported.