Dunham N C, Kindig D A, Libby D
University of Wisconsin-Madison.
Wis Med J. 1995 Jan;94(1):13-9.
The need for expansion of generalist residency training programs in Wisconsin is considered, using population-based considerations and projection models that estimate the future statewide supply of and requirements for generalist physicians. In 1990, Wisconsin's generalist physician-to-population ratio was relatively low, at 59 per 100,000 population. The supply of generalists per 100,000 population was also highly variable across broad geographic areas of the state, with 16 of Wisconsin's 25 Health Service Areas having ratios which fell below 59 per 100,000 population. These patterns may not automatically translate into the need for expansion of Wisconsin's generalist residency training capacity, however. The projection model indicates that, even with no expansion of graduate medical education capacity for generalist physicians, the statewide supply could grow to more than 70 generalists per 100,000 population by the year 2015. Expansion of the state's generalist training capacity would also not guarantee that any additional generalist physicians trained in the state would actually locate in areas where they would be most needed. Policy efforts to provide incentives for generalist physicians to locate in under-served areas should continue to be supported.
本研究利用基于人口的考量因素和预测模型，来估计威斯康星州全科医生的未来全州供应情况和需求，进而探讨该州扩大全科住院医师培训项目的必要性。1990年，威斯康星州的全科医生与人口比例相对较低，每10万人口中有59名全科医生。该州每10万人口中的全科医生供应在广泛的地理区域内也存在很大差异，威斯康星州25个卫生服务区中有16个的比例低于每10万人口59名。然而，这些模式不一定会自动转化为威斯康星州扩大全科住院医师培训能力的需求。预测模型表明，即使不扩大全科医生的毕业后医学教育能力，到2015年，全州的全科医生供应也可能增长到每10万人口70多名。该州扩大全科医生培训能力也不能保证在该州培训的任何额外全科医生实际会在最需要他们的地区执业。应继续支持旨在为全科医生在服务不足地区执业提供激励措施的政策努力。
